Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. His expert punditry can also be heard on William Hill Radio. Andrew’s stats-based approach to betting unearthed another winner yesterday and he has four more selections on Thursday.
The racing on Thursday October 21st comes from Carlisle, Ludlow, Newton Abbot, Thurles and Wolverhampton and our expert tipster Andrew Mount has found four bets:
NEWTON ABBOT 1.38
MARTHA BRAE (system – Dan Skelton stable switchers in handicap hurdles)
Dan Skelton has a good strike-rate at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially in handicap hurdles. Had we backed them all we’d have found 36 winners from 119 bets (30.3% strike-rate) and made a profit of £20.27 to a £1 level stake at SP. In October only, the strike-rate improves to 53.3% (eight wins from 15, +£19.60). MARTHA BRAE, rated as high as 127 at her peak for Warren Greatrex, can run off a 20lb lower mark today.
PRINTING DOLLARS (system – trainer Laura Morgan with claiming jockeys in chases)
Laura Morgan has a fine record when taking weight of one of her chasers with a conditional or amateur jockey, scoring with 14 of the 77 qualifiers (18.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £93.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners was a little over nine). Alice Coleman takes 7lb off PRINTING DOLLARS and the eight-year-old, winner of her sole point start, can open her chase account under Rules.
SIENNA BONNIE (system – sore Kodiac Bear at Wolverhampton)
Progeny of Kodi Bear have an eight form 33 record at Wolverhampton for a profit of £62.95 to a £1 level stake at SP and, while that’s a small sample size, it could be worth chancing SIENNA BONNIE at a big price in this 6f nursery. She had little chance in the £150, 000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes at Newmarket last time, though the 80-1 shot was far from disgraced in mid-division after trying to stay up with the early pace on a day the headwind made such tactics extremely difficult to execute successfully.
FODEN (system – sire Garswood on Tapeta)
FODEN ran well here over 7f on his debut back in June, finishing a 12-1 third of 11 despite missing the break. He confirmed the promise of that effort with a wide-margin soft-ground Lingfield win over the same trip next time and his two subsequent defeats are easily excused as he was dropped back to 6f, latterly in Group 3 company. The step up to an extended mile and return to the all-weather could suit and backing all progeny of Garswood on Tapeta would have returned a profit of £34.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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