Derivatives
Bitcoin derivatives data shows room for BTC price to move higher this week
BTC options data suggest that the Bitcoin price rally still has legs, even with wider economic concerns growing and the potential of a brief pause in the crypto market rally. Market Analysis Own this piece of history Collect this article as an NFT This week Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to a 2023 high at $23,100 and the move followed a notable recovery in traditional markets, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which gained 2.9% on Jan. 20. Economic data continues to boost investors’ hope that the United States Federal Reserve will reduce the pace and length of interest rate hikes. For instance, sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in December, the 11th consecutive decline after high mortgage rates in the United States severely impacted demand. On Jan. 20, Google announced...
Bitcoin derivatives data suggests a BTC price pump above $18K won’t be easy
Traders might rejoice now that Bitcoin price ventured above $17,400, but 27 long days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) last breached the $17,250 resistance. On December 13, after a two-week-long lateral movement, Bitcoin posted a 6.5% rally toward $18,000 and even though the current movement still lacks strength, traders believe that a retest of the $18,250 resistance remains possible. Bitcoin 12-hour price index, USD. Source: TradingView To start the week, the S&P 500 index rose to its highest level in 26 days on Jan. 9. Weak economic data had previously fueled investors’ expectation of slower interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Jan. 12 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could lend some credence to this expectation. On Jan. 6, German retail sales data sho...
‘Binance is the crypto market’: Arcane crowns the exchange 2022’s winner
During a year plagued by crises such as the collapse of FTX and Celsius, data shows that crypto exchange Binance has emerged as the clear “winner” of 2022 according to Arcane Research. A Jan. 3 report from Arcane highlighted that Binance saw its market dominance soar throughout 2022. As of Dec. 28 last year it had captured 92% of the Bitcoin (BTC) spot market and 61% of the BTC derivatives market by volume: “There are no other evident ‘winners’ of 2022 other than Binance when it comes to the crypto market structure and market dominance. No matter how you look at it in terms of trading activity, Binance is the crypto market.” Binance’s BTC spot market dominance was 45% at the start of 2022 meaning that it more than doubled, while its share of the BTC derivatives market increased by almost o...
3 ways crypto derivatives could evolve and impact the market in 2023
Futures and options let traders put down only a tiny portion of a trade’s value and bet that prices will go up or down to a certain point within a certain period. It can make traders’ profits bigger because they can borrow more money to add to their positions, but it can also boost their losses much if the market moves against them. Even though the market for crypto derivatives is growing, the instruments and infrastructure that support it are not as developed as those in traditional financial markets. Next year will be the year that crypto derivatives reach a new level of growth and market maturity because the infrastructure has been built and improved this ye, and an increasing number of institutions are getting involved. Crypto derivatives’ growth in 2023 In 2023, the volume...
3 reasons why Bitcoin is likely heading below $16,000
December will likely be remembered by Bitcoin’s (BTC) fake breakout above $18,000, but apart from that brief overshoot, its trajectory was entirely bearish. In fact, the downward trend that currently offers an $18,850 resistance could bring the BTC price below $16,000 by mid-January. Bitcoin/USD price index, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView A handful of reasons can explain the negative movement, including the reported withdrawal of the Mazars Group auditing firm from the cryptocurrency sector on Dec. 16. The company previously handled proof-of-reserve audit services for Binance, KuCoin and Crypto.com. Additionally, one can point to the bankruptcy of Core Scientific, one of the largest cryptocurrency miners in the United States, Core Scientific. The publicly listed company filed for ...
Bitcoin rebound to $18.4K? BTC price derivatives show strength at key support zone
Bitcoin (BTC) price lost 11.3% between Dec. 14 and Dec. 18 after briefly testing the $18,300 resistance. The move followed a seven-day correction of 8% in the S&P 500 futures after United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell issued hawkish statements after raising the interest rate on Dec. 14. Bitcoin price retreats to channel support Macroeconomic trends have been the main driver of recent movements. For instance, the latest bounce from the five-week-long ascending channel support at $16,400 has been attributed to the Central Bank of Japan’s efforts to contain inflation. Bitcoin 12-hour price index, USD. Source: TradingView The Bank of Japan increased the limit on government bond yields on Dec. 20, which are now trading at levels unseen since 2015. However, not everything has be...
$16K retest the most likely path for Bitcoin, according to 2 derivative metrics
Bitcoin (BTC) broke below $16,800 on Dec. 16, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. More importantly, the movement was a complete turnaround from the momentary excitement that had led to i$18,370 peak on Dec. 14. Curiously, Bitcoin dropped 3.8% in seven days, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s 3.5% decline in the same period. So from one side, Bitcoin bulls have some comfort in knowing that correlation played a key role; at the same time, however, it got $206 million of BTC futures contracts liquidated on Dec. 15. Some troublesome economic data from the auto loan industry has made investors uncomfortable as the rate of defaults from the lowest-income consumers now exceeds 2019 levels. Concerns emerged after the average monthly payment for a new car reached $718, a 26% in...
Total crypto market cap takes another hit, but traders remain neutral
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped 8.1% in the past two days after failing to break the $880 billion resistance on Dec. 14. The rejection did not invalidate the 4-week-long ascending channel, but a weekly close below $825 billion will confirm a shift to the lower band and reduce the support level to $790 billion. Total crypto market cap in USD, 12-hour. Source: TradingView The overall investor sentiment toward the market remains bearish, and year-to-date losses amount to 66%. Despite this, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped a mere 2% on the week, down to the $16,800 level at 17:00 UTC on Dec. 16. A far different scenario emerged for altcoins which are being pressured by pending regulation and fears that major exchanges and miners could be insolvent. This explains why the total...
Bitcoin retraces intraday gains as bears aim to pin BTC price under $18K
On Dec. 14, Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $18,000 for the first time in 34 days, marking a 16.5% gain from the $15,500 low on Nov. 21. The move followed a 3% gain in the S&P 500 futures in three days, which reclaimed the critical 4,000 points support. Bitcoin/USD index (orange, left) vs. S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView While BTC price started the day in favor of bulls, investors anxiously awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, along with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. The subsequent 50 basis point hike and Powell’s explanation of why the Fed would stay the course gave investors good reason to doubt that BTC price will hold its current gains leading into the $370 million options expiry on Dec. 16. Analysts and traders expect some form o...
Ethereum rallies to $1,350, but derivatives metrics remain neutral to bearish
Ether (ETH) rallied 6.3% to $1,350 on Dec. 13, mimicking a similar failed attempt that took place on Nov. 10. Despite reaching the highest level in 33 days, the gains were not enough to instill confidence in traders according to two key derivatives metrics. Ether/USD price index, 12-hour. Source: TradingView Bulls’ frustrations can partially be explained by Binance facing a near-record $1.1 billion in withdrawals over a 24-hour period. The unusual behavior comes as the exchange attempts to put out multiple disputes about its proof of reserves and overall solvency on crypto Twitter. According to Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, the social media posts amount to nothing more than FUD. However, Binance’s USD Coin (USDC) reserves were emptied after alleged troubles with commercial bankin...
Bitcoin bears beware! BTC holds $17K as support while the S&P 500 drops 1.5%
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls regained some control on Nov. 30 and they were successful in keeping BTC price above $16,800 for the past 5 days. While the level is lower than traders’ desired $19,000 to $20,000 target, the 8.6% gain since the Nov. 21, $15,500 low provides enough cushioning for eventual negative price surprises. One of these instances is the United States stock market trading down 1.5% on Dec. 5 after a stronger-than-expected reading of November ISM Services fueled concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) will continue hiking interest rates. At the September meeting, FED Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the point of keeping interest rates flat “will need to be somewhat higher.” Currently, the macroeconomic headwinds remain unfavorable and this is likely to remain ...
Ethereum price weakens near key support, but traders are afraid to open short positions
Ether (ETH) has been stuck between $1,170 to $1,350 from Nov. 10 to Nov. 15, which represents a relatively tight 15% range. During this time, investors are continuing to digest the negative impact of the Nov. 11 Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of FTX exchange. Meanwhile, Ether’s total market volume was 57% higher than the previous week, at $4.04 billion per day. This data is even more relevant considering the collapse of Alameda Research, the arbitrage and market-making firm controlled by FTX’s founder Sam Bankman-Fried. On a monthly basis, Ether’s current $1,250 level presents a modest 4.4% decline, so traders can hardly blame FTX and Alameda Research for the 74% fall from the $4,811 all-time high reached in November 2021. While contagion risks have caused investors to drai...
