Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to identify value bets and shares his Friday thoughts below.
The action steps up a gear on Friday January 21st with the first day of the Winter Million at Lingfield and Andrew has five selections. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites:
MARKET RASEN 12.30
BARONY LEGENDS (system – Olly Murphy hurdlers, first-time tongue-tie)
In-form Olly Murphy has won with 21 of his 74 hurdlers to wear a tongue-tie for the first time and backing them all would have returned a profit of £24.23 to a £1 level stake at SP. Both of last year’s Market Rasen qualifiers won (4-1 and 13-8) and BARONY LEGENDS can keep the ball rolling here.
CROSSGALESFAMEGAME (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
Simply backing all Sandy Thomson runners from November to February would have found 94 winners from 557 bets (16.9% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £226.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. CROSSGALESFAMEGAME found only short-priced favourite Zambella too good when 18-1 for a mares’ Listed chase at Doncaster last time, recording a career-best RPR (Racing Post Rating) in the process. She can make the long trip south a worthwhile one.
CEDAR HILL (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
CEDAR HILL qualifies as a bet on the same angle as Crossgalesfamegame (see 1.20) and looks overpriced (7-1 at the time of writing) because he’s widely regarded as a Kelso course expert. That’s understandable, as his record at Kelso reads 112131 (4-6) compared to 0850138367640F32 (1-16) at other venues, but, like Kelso, Lingfield is sharp, left-handed and undulating and it should suit him.
TIGHTEN UP (system – Rod Millman, first-time blinkers, fillies and mares)
TIGHTEN UP qualifies as a bet on a few different systems that I’m running, including the first-time blinkered angle. The in-form Rod Millman yard has used this headgear on their female runners to good effect, scoring with seven of the 31 qualifiers since 2009 for a profit of £68.00. She showed very little at Kempton last time but is worth a small and speculative interest at huge odds.
MARKET RASEN 2.40
HIDDEN BEAUTY (system – Ffos Las bumper winners, next time out)
Ffos Las form tends to get underrated but winners of National Hunt Flat Races at the Welsh venue often follow up, landing 43 of their 130 starts (33.1%) for a profit of £42.59. HIDDEN BEAUTY took a while to get the hang of things when 2-1 favourite on her debut at Ffos Las in mid-November but was well on top at the line and can maintain her 100% record by taking this Listed bumper.
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