Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew has been in great form this week and has some more interesting angles for Saturday’s racing.
Andrew found another winner on Friday with well-backed Lingfield scorer NEFARIOUS and has five picks on a typically busy Saturday (January 15th). Follow his tips all year round on horse racing betting sites:
SEVEN ARCHES (system – Sue Smith January runners)
Since 2014, Sue Smith has a 57 from 217 record with her runners in the month of January for a huge profit of £131.07 to a £1 level stake at SP. She has three runners at Wetherby today and the most interesting one is SEVEN ARCHES, who can be backed each-way against the odds-on favourite in this maiden hurdle. He kept on well to finish a 66-1 fourth at Newcastle last time and won’t have to improve much to sneak into the places.
SUBLIMINAL (system – Simon Down, Lingfield handicaps in January)
Simon Dow does well with his runners in Lingfield handicaps during the month of January and Nefarious was a winner for him on this system yesterday. SUBLIMINAL trailed home last at 33-1 over trip and track when last seen but that was in late October and his January record reads 3311122 (3-7), with the latest win off a mark of 63. He’s 5lb lower today and can be backed each-way.
DONYA (system – poorly drawn at Southwell last time out)
Since Southwell introduced their Tapeta surface it has been very difficult win a round-course handicap (6f) from stalls 1, 2 or 3. In fields of eight or more runners, the current score is just four from 117 for a loss of £91.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners was 9.24). Those same horses often make good bets next time and that’s the angle with DONYA, third of 13 from stall 2 in a 1m4f Southwell handicap last time. He also did best of those to race up with the pace in a race dominated by hold-up horses drawn middle to high.
CANMORE (system – sire No Nay Never, switching from Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire No Nay Never don’t have an especially good record on Tapeta but they’ve won 12 of their 67 starts when switching from Tapeta to turf or a different all-weather surface. Backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of almost £60 to the usual £1 stake at SP. CANMORE finished last of six when 33-1 for a Wolverhampton novice contest on his return from a short break earlier this month and will be happier back at tonight’s venue where he ran third at 28-1 on his penultimate start. It’s slightly surprising to see hm run in another novice contest rather than take the handicap route but he’s priced at about 20-1 and is worth chancing for his in-form yard.
RIGGSBY (system – made the running over 1m2f+ at Newcastle last time out)
It’s very difficult to win from the front on the round course at Newcastle (all-weather only) and horses who finished in the top four under forcing tactics make good bets next time, winning 48 of their 208 starts (23.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £78.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. Graham Lee got the fractions just right on RIGGSBY when landing a 2m handicap at Newcastle 11 days ago and can follow up on a track that his kinder to frontrunning tactics.
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