The greatest mistake Peter Obi made was getting high on app based polls that predict victory for him. In case you do not know what app based means, it simply means the pollsters behind the poll did it on an app, like Twitter or survey monkey. Why does this matter? Because, Nigeria has a disproportionately higher number of Southerners than Northerners on social media.
Remember that English is used for most apps, which favours Southerners. That is why Northern Nigerian participation on Facebook was minimal, until Facebook integrated Hausa into its app in September of 2016, after Mark Zuckerberg’s August 2016 visit to Nigeria. Other apps have yet to follow suit.
Look at states that did well in INEC’s online voter registration. The top 10 are dominated by Southern states. Now, look at the states that did well in physical registration. Other than Lagos and Oyo, the top 10 are the dominated by Northern states.
If there is one platform Northerners dominate, that medium is radio. That is why the world’s major powers ALL invest in a Hausa language broadcast service.
BBC Hausa, for example, has a weekly audience of 17.7 million. Whereas the highest rating that the BBC has in The UK (its home country) is 14.8 million (BBC Radio 2). App based polls will always disproportionately favour Southern Nigeria, because Northerners are on radio, while Southerners are on social media.
As a Southerner, when last did you tune into radio? As a Northerner, when last, if ever, did you visit Twitter? You see? QED!
It is just like Big Brother Nigeria. The craze fuelling BBNaija is not driven by television perse. It is fuelled by Southern Nigerian youths on social media. BBNaija hardly features in Northern Nigeria. It is a Southern thing.
Anyone who allows himself to get drunk on polls prepared by Southerners and foreigners, who have never lived in Northern Nigeria, as I have, and who assume, wrongly, that one size of poll fits all, is not very knowledgeable about Nigeria. What a great disappointment awaits them in 2023!