Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount has over 20 years experience in the industry and is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew uses stats to unearth value selections and has some interesting angles for Thursday’s action.
A winner a day keeps the doctor away and after successful picks at 15-2 on Monday and 6-1 on Tuesday, Andrew found 18-1 Nottingham scorer REGULAR INCOME on Wednesday. He has four selections for racing on Thursday November 4th:
RAINYDAY WOMAN (system – Paul Nicholls, first run after wind operation, 2m4f or shorter)
Paul Nicholls’ runners have a solid record on their first start back after wind surgery but it’s those who run over the shorter jumps trips that produce the profits. Simply backing all the qualifiers over 2m4f or shorter would have found 35 winners from 104 bets (33.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £37.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. RAINYDAY WOMAN won’t be much of a price but it likely to prove hard to beat.
KEPY BLANC (system – Philip Hobbs, non-handicap hurdles at Newbury)
Philip Hobbs-trained hurdlers have a great record at Newbury when running outside of handicap company, landing 35 of their 158 starts this century (22.2% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £162.02 to a £1 level stake at SP. Patient tactics were no help to KEPY BLANC at Warwick last time but he still ran a respectable third on his first run since leaving France and he looks worth an each-way punt against the odds-on favourite here.
MIDNIGHT ANTICS (system – Midnight Legend progeny, second start after wind surgery)
Horses who have experienced breathing difficulties often improve for a wind operation, but they sometimes need their first run back after the procedure. That certainly seems to be the case for progeny of sire Midnight Legend, who have won just 11 of their 114 starts (9.7% strike-rate) immediately following wind surgery for a loss of -£63.04 to a £1 level stake at SP. The strike-rate improves to 17% on their second start back (16 winners from 94 bets, +£32.83) and MIDNIGHT ANTICS, a respectable third at Ayr on her return from wind surgery and six-month lay-off, can get off the mark here.
POWER OF STATES (system – Hugo Palmer with progeny of Lope De Vega on the AW)
Trainer Hugo Palmer has a fantastic record with the progeny of Lope De Vega that he runs on all-weather tracks, scoring with 14 of the 28 qualifiers for a profit of £42.42 to a £1 level stake at SP. At Chelmsford only his Lope De Vega runners have recorded form figures of 21111211113 (7-10) for a profit of £26.25. POWER OF STATES was responsible for four of those wins and he’ll appreciate the return to this venue after finishing last of 13 at York on his most recent outing.
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